人口转变对储蓄率及利率的影响:基于收入效应的实证研究

The demographic effect on saving rate and interest rate:An empirical analysis of income effect

文章借助跨期一般均衡理论分析,在跨期消费替代弹性小于1的条件下,通过探讨出生率、死亡率的变化对人们预期未来消费分布和份额变化的影响来确定储蓄率及利率的变动方向。同时,使用跨国面板数据进行实证检验发现,出生率、死亡率对储蓄率及利率的作用方向截然相反。其中,出生率、死亡率对储蓄率分别存在显著的正向和负向影响,并且出生率对储蓄率的作用力要大于死亡率;相反,出生率、死亡率对利率分别存在显著的负向和正向影响,且出生率对利率的作用力要小于死亡率。

In an intertemporal general equilibrium framework, the economic mechanism of how saving rate and interest rate are affected by shocks of birth or death rates is discussed. Redistributions of consumption within the population is found to be the key driving force, given a small enough elasticity of intertemporal substitution（ EIS 1）. Quantitatively, an empirical analysis using cross-national panel data indicates that birth and death rates affect the saving rate（ or interest rate） through not identical channels. Birth rate affects saving rate positively, whereas death rate affects it negatively, and the effect of birth rate on saving rate is stronger than that of death rate. By contrast, interest rate is decreasing in the birth rate and increasing in the death rate, and the effect of birth rate on interest rate is smaller than that of death rate.