人口年龄结构与出口比较优势——理论框架和实证经验

Population Age Structure and Export Comparative Advantage: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Experience

过去学术界比较关注人口结构变动对贸易收支的影响,而忽视了对贸易结构的研究。文章首先通过建立一个包含两部门的跨期迭代模型,将人口出生率和人均预期寿命变量同时引入模型,从理论上证明了人口少子化和老龄化程度高的国家在资本密集型商品上具有出口比较优势;融资约束缓解能够强化该作用渠道,而人力资本提高的作用相反。其次,利用各国整体和HS 6分位产品层面贸易数据实证发现,虽然从规模上看,人口结构变动对贸易收支不利,但有利于出口结构调整;较强的融资约束和较高的人力资本水平削弱了人口结构变动对资本密集型商品出口的促进作用;分组回归发现,低老龄化国家人口老龄化的边际效应较强,而高老龄化国家可以通过改善融资环境和提高人力资本实现出口比较优势提升。

Scholars usually focus on influence of population structure change on trade balance,but neglect the study of trade structure.This article introduces birth rale and life expectancy variables into the model at the same time by establishing an overlapping generation model of two departments,proving that low birth rate and high degree of aging population have comparative advantage in capital intensive goods theoretically;Financing constraints easing can strengthen the above effect,and the role of human capital increase is on the contrary.Although population structure change is adverse to trade balance on the scale,but benefitial for export structural adjustment.Stronger financing constraints and a higher level of human capital have weakened the promotion effect of population structure change on capital-intensive goods export;Grouping regression finds that the marginal effect of population aging is stronger in low aging countries,and high aging countries can improve export comparative advantage by improving the financing environment and human capital.