2013年北京市臭氧时空分布及预报

Analysis on distribution characteristics and prediction of ozone in Beijing in 2013

根据2013年1—12月北京市O3小时浓度监测数据，探讨了北京市O3的时空分布特征，并建立了O3回归统计模型。结果显示：2013年北京市O3 8h全年平均为84．75μ/m3，O3超标日主要集中在5—9月份；O3日变化呈现单峰型分布，一般在15：00、16：00左右达到峰值，且存在明显的周末效应，空间分布上，中心城区O3浓度相对较低，生态植被优良的北部、西部山区站点浓度较高；建立的O3回归统计模型对北京市2013年O3 8h临近预报的级别准确率在75％以上，能较好地反映O3浓度变化趋势。

Vie analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of the maximum daily 8 hour average concen- tration of ozone in Beijing in 2013. One statistical partitioning prediction model for O3 was established using mat- lab. Analysis results showed that the average maximum daily 8 hour average ozone concentration over the whole year was 84.75 μg/m3 and the excessive ozone pollution days were mainly concentrated in May, June, July, August,and September. The diurnal variation for O3 showed a single peak distribution that appeared at 15：00 or 16：00 and there was an obvious weekend effect. The ozone concentration was lower in the central urban area and higher in northern and western mountain area where there was more vegetation. Further study showed that the es- tablished statistical partitioning prediction model could successfully capture the variation in O3 , and the air quality forecasting accuracy rates were above 75%.