多货种多供需地海陆联运格局及对世界能源运输的预判

Sea-land Transport Layout of Multi-kinds Cargoes with Multiple Supply-demand Spots and the Judgment of World Energy Transport Situation

为优化国际货运规划方案,对可兼容配载的多种货物、多供需地、双港节点直达海运的海陆联运问题进行研究,由其运输关系结构研究其运输系统整体经济性组织的航线分布与货流路径模型.设定相关各量后,以营运期内所有供需地间陆运和海运总成本为目标,以供需能力、港口通过能力、船队收益及船舶停时等约束建立模型,并改进传统盈利航速的计算,模型可实现船舶航速和运输总成本的双重优化.以世界原油和致密油供需为例,划分各国主要产销地区和油港,应用模型结果显示出未来各贸易国间的基本经济航线及一定能力约束产生的航线分布、运力配置及物流路径,表明远距离航线的最优航速偏高,且海运段成本具有支配性影响.

In order to optimize the international freight transportation planning, researched the land-sea transport problem of variety of goods, compatible stowage, multiple supply and demand area, double ports node and nonstop sea transport. Then research the model of shipping lines distribution and cargo flow paths organized by economy of the whole transport system from the transport relations structure. Setting related parameters, take the total transport costs between all supply and demand regions in the operating period as the objective function, construct the model with constraints of supply and demand ability, port capacity, fleet revenue and berthing time etc. In addition, improve the traditional calculation of profit speed, and the model can implement the dual optimization of ship speed and total transportation cost. Take the supply and demand forecast of world crude oil and tight oil as an example, and divide the main production and consumption areas and oil ports of each country. Model results show the basic economic shipping routes, required transport capacity and logistics routes and those from a certain capacity constraints among future trading nations. The optimal sailing speed tends to be faster on long-distance routes, while shipping cost is dominant in the entire transport costs.