基于突变理论的产业升级能力评价研究——以陕西装备制造业为例

Evaluation Research on the Industrial Upgrading Capacity of Shaanxi's Equipment Manufacturing Industry Based on Catastrophe Theory

在界定产业升级内涵的基础上,根据陕西装备制造业的发展现状及产业升级的客观要求,从产业升级的产出能力和投入能力两个维度构建了装备制造业产业升级能力评价指标体系,并运用突变模糊隶属度函数法对陕西装备制造业各下属产业升级能力进行了综合评价,结论表明:装备制造业所属的七个子行业的产业升级能力存在很大差距,其中金属制品业的产业升级能力最强,通用设备制造业、通信计算机及其他电子设备制造业、专用设备制造业次之,仪器仪表制造业、电气机械及器材制造业、交通运输设备制造业最差.进一步分析了产生这一结果的深层原因,在此基础上提出了陕西装备制造业产业升级的对策建议.

This article defines the connotation of industrial upgrading. According to the current development of shaanxi＇s equipment manufacturing industry and the requirement of industrial upgrading, then it builds the industrial upgrading capacity evaluation index system of equipment manufacturing industry from following two aspects： the output capacity and investment capacity of the industrial upgrading. Catastrophe fuzzy membership function method was employed to make synthetical evaluation for all subordinate industrial upgrading of shaanxi＇s equipment manufacturing industry. The results indicate that there is considerable variability in the all subordinate industrial upgrading capacity of shaanxi＇s equipment manufacturing industry. Metal Product industry is the strongest; general purpose equipment manufacturing industry, communication and computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, special purpose equipment manufacturing industry are relatively strong; instrument manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, transportation equipment manufacturing industry is the worst. And it analyzes the deep reasons for the results. On this basis, some recommendations on industry upgrading in shaanxi＇s equipment manufacturing industry are proposed.