摘要
低油价下,美国页岩油和欧佩克国家等产油大国的常规原油供给分别受到生产成本和财政压力日益突出的影响,中长期供应量将有所下降;原油需求缺乏替代,且全球经济未来进一步大幅下滑的空间较小,全球原油需求将保持稳定甚至小幅回升。因此,当前的国际原油价格难以持续,或将出现趋势性的触底回升。建议中国开展相关的前瞻性战略研究,支撑国家和企业应对国际油价触底回升的合理布局;石油企业通过落实选区评价、建立勘探风险基金、以混合所有制方式实施海外并购、加强技术创新和利用金融工具避险等措施,积极应对未来国际油价的触底回升。
Under low oil price environment, the production growth of American shale oil and OPEC conventional oil are affected by cost of production and financial pressure, the mid-long term supply will decline slightly For the reason of lacking alternative energy and narrowing room for global economy, with the rebound of global downturn and oil demand, the oil price will bounce back in the future. It suggests that China should carry out the proactive measures to respond to the rebound of oil price; petroleum enterprises should implement project evaluation, establish exploration risk fund, make overseas mergers with mixed capital investment, strengthen technical innovation and hedge risks by financial instruments.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2016年第2期46-51,共6页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
低油价
供需平衡
页岩油
财政收支平衡油价
战略研究
勘探投入
技术创新
金融工具
low oil price
supply and demand balance
shale oil
balance of revenue and expenditures for oil price
strategy research
exploration investment
technical innovation
financial instruments
