油价新常态下国际石油公司的应对之策

International oil companies under the New Normal of oil prices

本轮油价低迷态势或成为新常态,美国原油交易基金(ETF-USO)走势显示当前油价正处于低位震荡时期,持续时间会比想象的更久。油价回升需要挤出过剩产能、挤出低回报项目、挤出过剩库存和挤出过剩资金等"四个挤出"效应。油价新常态下,国际石油公司越发重视股价、现金流、盈利、股息及资产负债等业绩指标,纷纷出台各种应对之策:一是采取增产(稳产)提效、出售资产/兼并购、减少资本性支出、资产重组、减少运营成本、裁员等相对短期的被动应对措施,并与资源国等利益相关方协商调整相关财税政策及条款;二是推进积极的战略调整和资产结构优化组合等主动应对举措;三是着眼于能源长远发展,关注碳排放等外部成本内部化、合规成本、消费者多重要求以及能源替代竞争等可持续发展方向。

The current state of low oil prices might evolve into a New Normal. The recent trading dynamics of the US exchange-traded fund（ETF-USO） highlights the volatility of current prices, which could be lower for longer than expected. A healthy recovery of oil prices call for the ＂four crowding out＂ effects, which are to crowd out the over-capacity of supply, low-return investment projects, the excess inventory, and the over-fl owing capital. Confronted with the New Normal of oil prices, international oil companies increasingly prioritize the performance indicators such as stock prices, cash fl ows, earnings, dividends, and gearing ratio. Those oil majors have painstakingly drawn up the action plans and strategies： fi rst, take near-term passive measures such as production growth/steady output and productivity improvement, asset sales/MA, CAPEX cut, portfolio restructuring, OPEX cut, and job reduction; renegotiate the agreements or reopen the discussions of fi scal terms with such key stakeholders as host countries and lenders; second, take proactive measures such as strategic adjustment realignment and portfolio optimization; third, take a long view of sustainable energy developments such as internalizing carbon costs and other external costs, meeting diversifi ed consumer demands, and competing with alternative energy.