财政盈亏平衡油价的概念及应用局限

Fiscal breakeven for balancing oil price

财政盈亏平衡价格因能直观地反映石油出口国的财政收支状况,常被用来分析一国的经济和政治走向。一种典型的观点认为,一旦市场油价跌破财政盈亏平衡线,石油输出国将会面临巨大的经济、政治和社会问题,政府因此会减少供给使油价处于盈亏平衡油价以上。然而,自2014年油价大幅下跌后,上述判断并没有得到现实的印证。在分析产油国供给行为和预测油价走势时,需将盈亏平衡油价与外汇储备、汇率变化、财政政策、地缘政治等多种因素综合考虑,从而提高分析的准确性和可靠性。

Fiscal breakeven for balancing price has been widely used in analysis of political and economic trends, which can explicitly indicate the trends of politics and economy. A typical view is that once oil price falls below the fi scal breakeven, exporting states would be facing tremendous pressure economically, politically, and socially. The government therefore would cut supply and let oil price rising above the breakeven oil price. However, since the collapse of oil price from 2014, the forecast has not come true. Multiple factors should be considered with breakeven oil price together while analyzing oil supply behavior and predicting oil price to improve accuracy and reliability of the results, including foreign reserves, exchange rates, fi scal policies, and geopolitical factors.