2015年中国成品油出口情况及趋势

China's refined oil exports in 2015

2015年,中国成品油供大于求态势加剧。主要石油公司国内炼油能力与销售能力的矛盾日益突出,出口需求强烈。尽管成品油出口配额逐年增加,但石油公司出口积极性会受到国内销售价格、社会批发价格和出口价格差异的影响。国内外成品油品质差异导致炼厂生产面临两难境地,出口物流设施也存在瓶颈。原油来料加工复出口的模式不能从根本上降低库存和缓解产销矛盾。进出口权放开后,地炼油品出口将进一步加剧亚太市场供大于求的状况。亚太及周边地区炼油能力增长较快,挤压中国传统出口市场,开发潜在新市场需求迫切。从短期看,中国成品油出口呈增长的趋势,亚太市场竞争更加激烈;从长远看,中国成品油出口结构将发生变化,炼能过剩趋势将放缓,国内成品油供需也许会伴随着中国经济转型达到新的平衡点。

In 2015, the oversupply situation was exacerbated for China＇s oil products. The conflict between refinery capacity and marketing capacity in the domestic oil majors increasingly stand out with strong exports demand. Although the quota of the oil product export increases year by year, the exports initiative of domestic oil companies still depends on the differences among gate price, wholesale price and the export price. China＇s refiners are also facing the dilemma caused by the difference between oil product quality standards of China and that of export destinations, which is under the bottlenecks from logistics and facilities for exports. Moreover, processing imported crude and re-exported product may not reduce inventory and mitigate the contradiction between production and sales. The export of oil products from China＇s private refiners to Asia-Pacific markets will further exacerbate the oversupply situation after the crude import and product export right are gradually released. Meanwhile, the refining capacity is growing rapidly in Asia-Pacific and the surrounding area, which is squeezing China＇s traditional export markets. It is urgently to develop new demand of potential market. In the short-term, China＇s exports of refined oil product will show an increasing trend; the Asia-Pacific market will become more competitive. In the long term, the export structure of refined oil will be changed; the trend of refining overcapacity will also slow down. Accompanied by Chinese economic restructuring, the domestic refined oil supply and demand will achieve a new balance in the future.