安倍政府对台政策思维及日台关系走势

Abe Administration's Thoughts on the Policy toward Taiwan and the Trends in Japan-Taiwan Relations

鉴于台湾马英九当局强硬的对日态度、日台间的现实矛盾,以及2016年台湾选举结果等各类因素,日本安倍政府逐步调整了对台政策,并显现出"亲民进党"、"提升日台经济合作层级"、"增加台湾对日依赖性"等三大特征。与此同时,因迫于岛内政治现实及中日竞争态势加剧的考虑,安倍政府在台湾问题上急于实现四个重要的战略取向:一是在台湾扶持一个"亲日派"政府,或者至少确保台湾新政府不会与其发生直接的政治冲突;二是进一步强化对台湾的影响力及控制力,并为台湾争取适度的"国际空间";三是深度介入台湾问题,并在南海问题上尝试构建日美台三边合作机制,为其抗衡中国大陆积累战略筹码;四是维持台海局势及海峡两岸关系的现状。

Given various factors such as the tough attitude of Ma Ying-jeou authorities in Taiwan toward Japan,realistic contradictions between Japan and Taiwan,and the 2016 election in Taiwan,Japan's Abe administration has gradually adjusted its policy toward Taiwan,showing the three major characteristics: a stance of 'pro-Demo-cratic Progressive Party,''enhancing the level of Japan-Taiwan economic cooperation,'and 'increasing Taiwan's dependency on Japan. 'At the same time,due to the considerations of the Island's political reality and the situation of intensifying competition between China( PRC) and Japan,Abe administration is eager to achieve four key strategic objects on the Taiwan Question: firstly,to help to establish a 'pro-Japanese 'government in Taiwan,or at least to ensure that Taiwan's new government will not have direct political confrontation with Japan; secondly,to further strengthen its influence and control on Taiwan and strive for a moderate 'international space 'for Taiwan;thirdly,to be deeply involved in the Taiwan Question,and try to build a trilateral cooperation mechanism among Japan,the U. S. and Taiwan for the South China Sea issue to accumulate its strategy chips to counterbalance China's Mainland; and fourthly,to maintain the situation across the Taiwan Strait and the status quo of the cross-strait relations.