中国经常项目变动的财政解释:基于半参数变系数模型

Fiscal Explanation of China's Current Account Changes:Based on the Semi Parametric Estimation Model

近20多年来,中国经常账户的变动可能与政府的财政政策有关。采用函数化系数半参数估计方法,实证检验了中国的财政支出、财政收入以及财政余额对中国经常项目的时变性影响。实证结果表明:(1)中国财政的"生产型财政"特征是导致中国经常项目顺差的重要因素。(2)中国的财政账户与经常账户存在非线性关系,有的时段支持"双赤字假说",有的时段支持"双重分叉假说"。(3)实际汇率在2005年之后对经常账户的影响作用逐步走强。中国经常账户的良性运转,今后应该作为国家宏观管理的目标之一。而中国实现经常账户的良性运转的根本途径是建立公共财政和实现人民币汇率的平稳运行。

In the past twenty years, China＇s current account may be having something to do with government＇s fiscal policy. In this paper, with the semi parametric estimation method, we have an empirical test of time-varying effect between China＇s fiscal expenditure, fiscal revenue and the fiscal balance with China＇s current account. The empirical results show that：（1） Chinese＂production finance＂is the result of China＇s current account surplus.（2） there is a non-linear relationship between China＇s financial account and current account, sometime in support of the＂twin deficits hypothesis＂,sometime in support of＂twin divergence hypothesis＂.（3） the real exchange rate in 2005 after the impact on the current account effect gradually strengthened. The benign operation of the current account in China, will be one of the goals of the national macro management in the future. The fundamental way to realize the benign operation of China current account is the establishment of the public finance and the smooth operation of the RMB exchange rate.