摘要
为了探究信用卡销售的影响因素,以及未来信用卡的销售量,采用调查问卷的方法,对影响中信银行信用卡销售的相关因素进行了分析,基于灰色系统理论计算出了信用卡销量和销量影响因素的关联度,并对其影响因子进行了排序。以中信银行2008—2013年的销售量为基础数据,建立了GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,预测出中信银行未来5年的信用卡销售量,并通过还原检验分析对预测结果予以验证,表明预测值和实际值具有较高的拟合度,可以为商业银行加强信用卡销售预测和信用卡销售管理提供辅助决策依据。基于灰色系统理论建立的GM(1,1)预测模型,有效地解决了信用卡销售过程中能够掌控的数据少、信息贫、有效性差等问题,解决了一般模型难以准确预测的困难,为解决类似问题提供了可借鉴的研究工具。
In order to explore the factors of credit card sales and its future sales, based on the questionnaire, analyzed some relevant factors which affect the CITIC Bank credit card sales, Grey System Theory is used calculated the correlation of the factors, and sort these influencing factors. This paper based on the China CITIC Bank Sales data in 2008-2013, set up GM（1,1） grey prediction model,predicted the future 5 years China CITIC Bank credit card sales. The prediction results verified by restoring inspection analysis, prove that the predicted value and actual value has a high fitting degree,which could provide decision-making basis for CITIC Bank in strengthening the credit card credit card sales forecast and sales management. The GM（1, 1） prediction model which build on the gray system theory effective solved the lack of data, insufficient information and low efficiency problems in credit card sales process. It also solved the inaccurately forecast issue that the other general model is difficult to overcome. It provided a reliable research tool to solve the similar problems.
出处
《金融理论与实践》
北大核心
2016年第4期51-55,共5页
Financial Theory and Practice
