基于Usher模型及水驱特征曲线的综合预测模型

A Comprehensive Prediction Model Based on Usher Model and Water Drive Characteristic Curves

将Usher模型与常用水驱特征曲线相结合,建立了一种能预测水驱油田在不同开发时期的含水率、产油量、产水量、产液量和相应累计产油量等开发指标以及可采储量的联解模型。此模型克服了产量预测模型中缺少含水率和水驱特征曲线缺少开发时间等开发指标的缺陷。油田实际开发数据与预测结果的对比表明,此联解模型的预测精度相对较高,能够满足水驱油田开发指标的动态预测要求。

Combined Usher model with water drive curves, this paper presents a new simultaneous solution model for predicting water cut,oil production rate, water production rate, fluid production rate and cumulative oil production variations with development time and recover-able reserves of a water drive oilfield. This model solves the problems without water cut parameter in yield prediction model and withouttime factor t in water drive curves. Case study shows that the prediction accuracy by this model is relatively higher than others and the mod-el can satisfy the requirements of performance prediction of development indices in water drive oilfields.