贷款总额、利率、土地供应量与企业非效率投资——基于房地产行业的实证分析

Total Loans,Loan Rate,Land Supply and the Inefficient Investment of Enterprises:An Analysis Based on the Real Estate Industry

如何提高房地产宏观调控水平成为全民关注的热点。据此,通过Richardson模型,采用面板数据验证了我国房地产上市企业的非效率投资程度,并验证了金融机构贷款总额、贷款利率和土地供应量对房地产企业非效率投资行为的具体影响。研究结果显示:我国房地产企业存在过度投资行为,也存在投资不足问题,整体上表现为投资不足,且过度投资、投资不足程度与自由现金流量分别呈现出显著正相关及负相关;从整体上看,贷款总额、贷款利率和土地供应量对房地产企业的过度投资行为影响不显著,但对投资不足行为能产生有效的调控作用,且贷款总额的影响效应最大,贷款利率次之,土地供应量的影响最小;贷款总额、贷款利率和土地供应量对非国有房地产企业投资不足行为的影响更加有效,但对国有和非国有房地产企业的过度投资均不产生显著影响;贷款总额、贷款利率和土地供应量对中小型房地产企业投资不足行为影响显著,尤其是中小型非国有房地产企业,对大型国有房地产企业投资不足影响不显著,对大型非国有房地产企业投资不足仅土地供应量显著相关;仅贷款总额、贷款利率对大型非国有房地产企业的过度投资行为影响显著。

How to improve macro control on real estate has become a national focus.This paper verifies the level of inefficient investment of real estate listed companies in China,and the impact of total amount of loans from financial institutions,loan rates and the supply of land on inefficient investment behavior of real estate listed companies.Our research has found that：（1）There are over-investment behaviors in China＇s real estate listed companies,there are also under-investment problems,the overall performance is under investment.The free cash flow has a significant positive correlation with over investment,and negatively correlated with under-investment;（2）The impact of total commercial loans,loan rates and land supply on over-investment behaviors of real estate listed companies is not significant,but can play an effective regulatory role on the under-investment behavior,and the impact of total loans is the largest,followed by loan rates,the impact of land supply is the minimum;（3）Total loans,loan rates and land supply have a more effective impact on under-investment of non-stateowned real estate enterprises,but their impact on over-investment behaviors of state-owned real estate companies or non-state-owned real estate companies are not significant;（4）Total loans,loan rates and land supply can significantly affect the under-investment behavior of small and medium real estate enterprises,especially small and medium non-state-owned real estate companies.They have no significant impact on the under-investment behavior of large state-owned real estate enterprises,and only land supply can significantly affect the under-investment of large non-state-owned enterprises.Only total loans and loan rates can affect the over-investment behavior of large non-state-owned real estate companies significantly.