土地市场景气指数编制的探索与实践——以上海土地市场为例

The investigation and application of the establishment of the prosperity index for land transaction markets:The Shanghai case study

编制上海土地市场景气指数是对上海土地市场进行监测预警的重要手段。基于景气循环理论及基本规律,结合上海实际,提出影响上海土地市场景气的指标因素,在此基础上构建上海土地市场当前景气指数、未来景气指数和综合景气指数,并通过主客观赋权法进行赋权。实证结果表明,各指数的编制合理有效。在此之上进一步建立上海土地市场景气预警信号系统,实证检验表明系统设置较为准确。当市场过冷或过热时,政府相关部门应分别采取不同措施,确保市场在合理波动范围内运行。上海土地市场景气指数和景气预警系统需在未来实践中不断优化。

The establishment of the Shanghai land market prosperity index provides an important means of monitoring and early warning,in the Shanghai land market.Based on the business cycle theory and the reality of Shanghai,this article proposes some index factors affecting the land market situation in Shanghai.It then constructs the prosperity index at present and for a future date,from which it synthesizes the prosperity index for the Shanghai land market.The objective and subjective synthetic approach is used to determine the weightage of each factor.The empirical results thus obtained ensure that the establishment of each index is reasonable and effective.Then,the prosperity warning signal system of the Shanghai land market is further strengthened and tested.The empirical test proves that the system settings are fairly accurate.When the land market is too ‘cold＇ or too ‘hot＇,the relevant government departments can take appropriate measures to ensure that the operation of the land market stays within a rational fluctuation range.The prosperity index and the prosperity warning signal system of the Shanghai land market will continue to be constantly optimized in the future.