基于变分法的经济演化路径的最优化分析

Analysis: Economic Evolution Path Optimization Based on Variational Method

为研究在新常态下经济的可持续发展模式,文中引入希克斯中性技术进步生产函数以模拟最优的可持续增长路径;并基于固定端点利用变分法研究使整个社会效用最大化的技术进步、资本、劳动的最优运动路径,得出分别为时间的三次、二次、一次函数.实证过程中,利用误差修正模型拟合发现,我国20世纪90年代后经济发展轨迹与得出的最优路径极为相似,社会总产出与技术、资本、劳动存在协整关系,误差修正项系数显著非零,符号为负;同时也表明技术进步对经济可持续增长作用显著,鼓励和支持技术创新才是维持经济平稳快速发展的关键.

In order to study sustainable economic development model under the new normal situation, the author first analyzes the contribution of technological progress to the economic growth with the assumption of Hicks neutral technical progress. The study uses the variational method to calculate the optimal evolving path of technological progress, capital and workforce, and further finds whether they are cubic, quadratic and linear separately. In the empirical analysis, using error correction model it is found that China＇s economic development pattern is closely fitting to the optimal path that is obtained, and also found is that there exists cointegration relationship between GDP, capital and workforce. The coefficient of ECM is significantly nonzero, and the value is negative. Empirical analysis also shows that technological progress has an especially significant effect on the sustainable economic growth. Encouraging and supporting the technical innovation is the key to maintaining steady and rapid economic development.