我国对丝绸之路经济带中亚五国出口贸易扩张路径研究

On China's Trade Path of Exporting to Five Central Asian Countries on the Silk Road Economic Belt

丝绸之路经济带中亚五国尚处于工业化初级阶段,国内欠缺完整的工业体系,需要大量从国外进口制造品,其庞大的市场需求必将引起世界各国的争夺。2008年金融危机之后,美国由虚拟经济向实体经济回归,在世界范围寻求尚未饱和的市场,中亚五国必将成为美国未来的战略争夺区域。笔者针对中亚五国市场的特征,分别建立"同质"和"异质"贸易商品的市场均衡博弈模型,并提出我国向丝绸之路经济带中亚五国扩大贸易规模的三阶段操作路径:以均衡达到共存→以成本优势抢占最大市场份额→以技术优势占有中亚五国市场。

The five central Asian countries on the Silk road economic belt are still at the primary stage of industrialization. They lack a complete industrial system and need to import a great quantity of manufactures. Their huge market demands will surely cause other countries＂ competitions. After the financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. has returned from the virtual economy to the entity economy, seeking the yet-saturated market all over the world. The five central Asian countries will surely become the strategy target of the U.S. in the future. According to the market features of the five central Asian countries, this paper sets up both a ＂homogeneous＂ trade goods market equilibrium game model and a ＂heterogeneous＂ one and comes up with a three-phase operation path to expand China＇s trade scale with the five central Asian countries, namely, to balance to coexist, to achieve the lion＇s share at the low cost and to occupy the central Asian market with the technological superiority.