中国居民旅游需求的动态决定机制及其影响因素——一个经济、文化与自然环境的综合视角

Dynamic Determining Mechanism of Tourism Demand of Chinese Residents and Its Influencing Factors:A Synthesized Perspective of Economic,Cultural and Natural Environment

旅游需求由经济因素和非经济因素共同决定。文章基于中国1991-2012年间31个省、自治区和直辖市的面板数据,通过面板向量自回归的方法研究了中国居民旅游需求的动态决定机制及其影响因素。研究表明,经济发展水平和相对经济发展水平当期正向影响旅游需求;文化支出对旅游需求的单向影响机制十分显著,而旅游需求对文化支出的作用却十分有限;化学需氧量与旅游需求负相关,二氧化硫与旅游需求的负相关关系并不显著,大气污染物减排与旅游需求之间的正向影响关系尚不明确;文化和环境等非经济因素需要在更长时间跨度上对旅游需求产生作用,而稳态处非经济因素影响旅游需求的长期累积效应可以达到约50%,这与经济发展水平影响旅游需求的长期累积效应相当。因此,发展区域经济和处理好与低经济发展水平客源地之间的关系、重视旅游资源保护与处理好旅游资源内部各资源禀赋之间的关系、加大旅游业对文化产业的反哺力度与处理好"文化"与"旅游"协同发展关系,是保证旅游需求旺盛和实现我国旅游经济持续、快速、健康发展的关键。

Tourism demand is determined jointly by economic factors and non-economic factors.This paper studies dynamic determining mechanism of tourism demand of Chinese residents and its influencing factors with the method of panel vector autoregression based on panel data of 31 provinces,autonomous regions and direct-controlled municipalities in China between 1991 and 2012.The research shows that economic development level and relative economic development level are positively influencing tourism demand in the current period;cultural expenditures have significant one-way influence on tourism demand,while tourism demand has very limited effect on cultural expenditures;chemical oxygen demand and tourism demand have negative correlation;the negative correlation between sulfur dioxide and tourism demand is not significant.The positive influence relation between air pollutant emission reduction and tourism demand is not clear.Non-economic factors such as culture and environment need longer time span to have influence on tourism demand.The long-term accumulative effect of influence of non-economic factors in the steady state on tourism demand can reach about 50%,which is equivalent to long-term accumulative effect of influence of economic development level on tourism demand.Therefore,developing regional economy,handling the relation with passenger sources with low economic development level,attaching importance to tourism resource protection,handling the relationship among each resource endowment in tourism resources,enhancing re-feeding of tourist industry for cultural industry and handling the relationship of synergetic development between culture and tourism well are key to guarantee great tourism demand and realize sustainable,rapid and healthy development of Chinese tourism economy.