新疆粮食产量主要影响因素分析

Analysis on the main influencing factors of the grain production in Xinjiang

根据新疆的实际情况,选取粮食播种面积、粮食有效灌溉面积、农业机械总动力、化肥施用量、粮食生产劳动力和受灾面积6个影响粮食产量的因素作为自变量,选取粮食产量作为因变量,应用SPSS软件作为数据处理工具,对新疆1999~2014年粮食产量与各主要影响因素之间的关系进行回归分析,得到回归模型,并以2014年实际数据来检验该模型的预测精度。结果表明,新疆1999~2014年粮食产量的增长主要取决于粮食有效灌溉面积、农业机械总动力和化肥施用量三个方面水平的提升,且近年来有效灌溉面积对新疆粮食产量的影响不断增强,而农业机械总动力和化肥施用量对新疆粮食产量的影响程度有减弱的趋势。

According to the actual situation of Xinjiang,this article selects the area sown to grain,grain effective irrigated area,total power of agricultural machinery,applying fertilizer content,grain production,labor,and the affected area of six factors affecting grain production as the independent variables,selection of food production as the dependent variable,the application of SPSS software for data processing tools,grain yield from 1999 to 2014in Xinjiang and the relationship between the main influencing factors of regression analysis,regression model,and in 2014,the actual data to verify the accuracy of the model.The results showed that the growth of the grain production from 1999 to 2014in Xinjiang mainly depends on the effective irrigation area of food,agricultural machinery total power and find three aspects：the level of ascension,and in recent years,effective irrigation area of Xinjiang grain output increasing,the influence of appropriate amount of fertilizer and agricultural machinery total power and the influence degree of the Xinjiang grain output has a weakening trend.