基于Logistic模型的城市交通系统演化研究

Urban Traffic System Evolution Based on Logistic Model

城市交通系统是城市大系统中的子系统,它具有生物学中由低级到高级演化的特征,并与其他子系统如经济、资源、环境等因素以及政府调控之间相互作用下最终形成比较稳定的有序结构。通过对交通系统演化机理的分析,构建交通系统演化过程的Logistic模型,通过仿真模拟,研究经济、资源、环境、政府等因素对交通系统演化的影响。以山东半岛城市群中心城市——青岛市交通系统的演化为例,验证模型的可行性,并计算出青岛交通系统演化的logistic方程,进而预测青岛市直至2050年的交通系统演化曲线,为青岛市交通系统建设进一步完善提供理论依据。

As a subsystem of city system,the urban traffic system has a characteristic in biology with an evolution process from low level to high,and can form a relatively stable and ordered structure when it interacts with other subsystems such as economy,resources,environment and government regulation. The mechanism of traffic system evolution was analyzed,and a Logistic model of traffic system evolution process was established. The factors that can influence the traffic system evolution process such as economy,resources,environment and government were studied by simulation. The feasibility of the proposed model was proved by an empirical analysis on Qingdao,which was a center city of Shandong peninsula urban cluster. Lastly,Logistic equation of Qingdao traffic system evolution was calculated and the evolution curve of Qingdao traffic system was also forecasted up to 2050,which provided the theoretical basis for the further improvement of Qingdao traffic system.