共识的国际战略效应:一项理论性探讨

Consensus Politics and its International Strategic Effects:A Theoretical Investigation

共识是国际关系研究和实践中的一个重要概念,既有国际合作理论和战略理论研究等均将共识作为合作的基本条件或潜在假定之一,而在国际关系实践中将追求、落实和巩固共识作为一项基本的外交目标和合作实践。在共识的主体间认知分析基础上,国际共识的类型可以细化为真实共识与部分/虚假共识、消极共识与积极共识等范畴。基于共识的层次分析,塑造共识既成为国际合作的重要基础和条件,也是国际冲突消解的一种重要方式和途径,而部分共识或虚假共识具有重要的国际合作促进作用,同样在特定条件下它也能引发、激化和升级国际冲突。部分共识或虚假共识的国际合作与冲突辩证效应以及消极共识的冲突效应均成为共识的国际战略效应理论分析的核心内容。基于多层次的共识类型分析,共识的国际战略心理学研究包括合作与冲突的效应讨论。共识的国际战略效应分析能够重构共识与国际合作、共识与国际冲突的理论逻辑,对于分析和辨析国际关系中的共识实践具有重要的政策启示。

Consensus is a key concept in IR research and practice.In theory,consensus is regarded as a basic condition or hypothesis for cooperation in both international cooperation theories and strategic theories;in practice,consensus is a fundamental diplomatic goal to be pursued,fulfilled and consolidated.Based on the inter-subjective analysis of consensus,international consensus can be categorized as accurate versus partial/fake consensus,and negative versus positive consensus.According to the hierarchical analysis of consensus,consensus building is a fundamental condition for international cooperation,and an important means for conflict resolution.While partial/fake consensus can contribute to international cooperation,it can also result in escalation of international conflicts under certain circumstances.The key issues of the theoretical analysis of the international strategic effects of consensus include the role of partial/fake consensus in international cooperation and conflicts,and the conflict effects of negative consensus.The study of consensus from the perspective of international strategic psychology based on the multi-level analysis of consensus types,consists of analysis of the effects of cooperation and conflicts.The paper reconstructs the logic between consensus and international cooperation as well as international conflicts,which is crucial forthe recognition of different types of consensus in international relations.