元代江南与大都间的粮食供给关系——基于博弈论下的考察

Grain Supply Relationship between Jiangnan and Dadu in the Yuan Dynasty——A Study Based on the Game Theory

本文分析了元代经济中心(江南)与政治中心(大都)间的粮食供给关系,并从博弈论的角度研究了这种关系演化的机制,认为元代江南与大都间在粮食供给上存在着典型的"囚徒困境"和"猎鹿博弈",由于粮食产出能力和粮食分配制度上的不协调,使得双方很难在粮食供给上达成合作,进而导致饥荒和战争的严重后果。

This paper analyzes the grain supply relationship between the economic center （Jiangnan） and political center （Dadu） in the Yuan Dynasty, and explores the evolutional mechanism of the relationship from the perspective of game theory. The typical relationship between Jiangnan and Dadu was like ＂The prisoner＇s dilemma＂ and ＂Deer hunting game＂ di- lemma. The grain distribution system didn＇t match the grain output capacity, which made it difficult to achieve cooperation between the two sides in the grain supply, resulting in seri- ous consequences of famine and war.