河池市近56年来气候变化特征

Climatic change characteristics of Hechi city in the last 56 years

对水、光、热等主要气候因素变化特征进行分析,有助于全面了解并合理利用当地气候资源,为水资源利用、农业生产规划、生态环境监测等提供依据。基于河池市1958年-2013年气温、降水、日照时数等气候数据,利用线性回归、累积距平法、Mann-Kendall法,分析了该市近56年来气候变化特征,结果显示:年均气温呈显著升高趋势,倾向率为0.11℃/(10a),突变点出现在1986年。四季气温升幅不一,以夏、秋季升温幅度最大,且是年均气温升高的主导因素。年降水量以及春、夏、秋季降水量表现为微弱的减少趋势,而冬季降水量微弱增加。全年日照时数以-63.083h/(10a)的速率显著减少,减少突变点为1970年,1976年之后减少显著。四季日照减幅表现为夏季>秋季>冬季>春季。

Researching on characteristics of main climate factors in the area such as water,light,and heat can contribute to a comprehensive understanding and rational utilization of local climatic resources,which can provide the basis for utilization of water resources,agricultural production planning,and ecological environment monitoring.Based on temperature,precipitation,and sunshine duration of Hechi city from 1958 to 2013,the climate change characteristics were analyzed by linear regression,cumulative departure,and Mann-Kendall method.The results showed that the annual temperature increased remarkably,and the tendency rate was 0.11℃ /（10a）,with the mutation point appearing in 1986.The increase of temperature in the four seasons was different,but the biggest increasing range of temperature appeared in summer and autumn,which were the dominant factors of the increase of annual mean temperature.The precipitation in spring,summer and autumn and annual precipitation showed a slight decrease tendency,and there was a slight increase of precipitation in winter.The annual sunshine duration decreased remarkably with the rate of-63.083h/（10a）,with the mutation point of decrease in 1970,and there was a remarkable decrease after 1976.The seasonal sunshine duration decreased significantly as well,and the order of four seasons according to decreasing range were summer,autumn,winter and spring.