要素分工对国际经济周期传导的影响——来自中国与东亚9国(地区)间的经验证据

The Impact of Factor Specialization on the Transmission of International Business Cycles: Evidence From China and 9 Other East Asian Countries

本文在文献梳理和理论分析基础上设定的产品内分工对国际经济周期传导的理论命题及推论,运用1991-2014年中国与东亚9国(地区)间的行业面板数据进行了检验。结论表明:(1)随着资本、技术、劳动、资源密集型行业的垂直专业化程度呈阶梯性下降,它们对国际经济周期的影响亦随之依次呈阶梯性减弱以至为负。(2)强流动要素中间产品贸易对国际经济周期的影响大于弱流动要素中间产品贸易对国际经济周期的影响,而这主要取决于要素中间产品的要素替代弹性和中间产品替代弹性的"两个弹性"大小。

The article studies the impact of intra-product specialization on the transmission of international business cycles based on industry panel data of Chi- na and 9 other east Asian countries from 1991-2014. Our methods included litera- ture review and theoretical analysis. The results are as follows. One, as the de- gree of vertical specialization of capital-, technology-, labor- and resource-inten- sive industries decreases, the industries＇ impact on international business cycles weakens and even becomes negative. Two, the impact of the strong flow element in the intermediate product trade is more significant than the weak flow element, which depends on the substitution elasticities of element intermediate product and intermediate products.