经济下行压力下转移支付与基础设施投资政策研究

Policy Choice of Transfer Payment and Infrastructure Investment under the Economic Downward Pressure

近年来,学者对中国大规模转移支付与基础设施投资政策的利弊众说纷纭。部分学者认为转移支付刺激的基础设施投资对经济的促进作用有限,提出了改变转移支付分配结构,加大人力资本投资及科技投入的建议。为此本文通过构建动态博弈内生经济增长模型,并结合对1994-2014年省级面板数据的回归分析,来探求中央转移支付与地方基础设施投资以及经济增长的关系。理论与实证结论均表明虽然基础设施投资对东中西部的经济拉动力度存在差异,但相对人力资本等其他投资而言,基础设施的拉动作用均更为显著。在经济面临严重下行压力和各种潜在风险的情况下,不宜贸然否定当前的转移支付与基础设施投资政策,而应在保持政策连续性的前提下按地区进行适度差异化调整,为稳增长、调结构创造时间和空间。

In recent years, scholars have different opinions on the advantages and disadvantages of China＇s large-scale transfer payments and infrastructure investment policy. Some scholars believe that under the stimulation of transfer payment, the infrastructure investment couldn＇t promote the economic growth. They put forward to change the structure of the transfer payment to increase investment in human capital and science. In this paper, we explore the relationships between the central transfer payments, local infrastructure investment and economic growth by building a dynamic game model of endogenous economic growth and regression analysis of the provincial panel data from 1994-2014. Both theoretical and empirical results show that the infrastructure investment is different on promoting the East and West economic growth, but compared with the relative human capital and other investment, the role of infrastructure is more significant. And in the face of severe economic downward pressure and various potential risks, it is not appropriate to deny the current transfer payment and infrastructure investment policy. In the premise of maintaining policy continuity, we should take an appropriate and different adjustment for different regions to create time and space for steady growth, adjusting structure.