福建省厦门市居民食管癌死亡与减寿趋势预测

Prediction of Mortality and Years of Life Lost Due to Esophageal Cancer in Residents in Xiamen,Fujian Province

[目的]探讨厦门市居民食管癌死亡与减寿的变化趋势,为厦门市食管癌综合防治工作提供依据。[方法]收集整理2004-2014年厦门市居民食管癌死亡资料,计算死亡率、平均减寿年数（AYLL）、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM（1,1）模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。[结果]2004-2014年厦门市居民食管癌死亡率为22.98/10万,年均下降2.59%。AYLL为8.23年,总体呈下降趋势。GM（1,1）模型预测2015-2019年食管癌死亡率和AYLL值男性和总体均有所下降,女性则出现反弹。[结论]GM（1,1）模型可用于厦门市居民食管癌死亡率和减寿趋势预测,未来食管癌死亡虽有下降趋势,但仍呈高位态势,仍要重视食管癌的预防控制工作。

[Purpose] To investigate the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to esophageal cancer in residents in Xiamen,so as to provide the basis data on preventing esophageal cancer in Xiamen. [Methods] The death data of esophageal cancer in residents in Xiamen from 2004 to2014 was collected and evaluated the indexes including the mortality,the average potential life lost（AYLL）,and the annual percentage change（APC） of mortality rate. Grey Model（GM）（1,1） model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. [Results] From 2004 to 2014,the average mortality of esophageal cancer in residents in Xiamen was 22.98/105,of which in male was 3.80 times higher than that in female. The APC was 2.59%. The AYLL was 8.23 years,which had a decline trend in total residents from 2004 to 2014. The mean absolute percentage errors between observed values and fitted values were 0.47%-5.59%. GM（1,1） model forecasted that the mortality and AYLL of esophageal cancer from 2015 to 2019 will decrease in total or in male residents but will increase in female residents in Xiamen. [Conclusions] GM（1,1） model could be used to forecast the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to the esophageal cancer in residents in Xiamen. Though there will be adescending trend of mortality and years of life lost due to the esophag ed cancer in future,the mortality is still high. So we still have to pay more attention to the prevention and control of esophageal cancer.