产业集群关联度、集群企业信贷可得与风险传染

Cluster Correlation,Credit Availability and Contagion of Risk

集群融资优势的发挥有赖于集群企业在长期的交互关系中形成一定程度的协同,否则集群融资可能带来违约风险累积并发生传染性风险。构建了包含横向关联、纵向关联、网络关联三个方面在内的产业集群关联度评价指标体系,并纳入外部因素考量,基于苏州化纤加弹产业集群企业融资行为调查数据,运用结构化方程模型验证了集群关联度的内在逻辑关联以及集群关联度对集群企业信贷可得性的影响。研究发现,集群横向关联、纵向关联、网络关联与集群外部因素相互作用,并对集群企业信贷可得产生显著正向影响。进一步从商业银行集群信贷决策视角提出了行长晋升"锦标赛"理论假说以解释集群风险传染的内在机理。产业集群在解决中小企业融资难的同时还要关注集群融资下的风险传染问题,集群融资优势既取决于有效提升产业集群关联实质,还取决于商业银行治理及决策模式优化。集群融资有效性有赖于产业集群规划者和管理方、集群企业、商业银行以及政府等多部门系统协作。

Synergy formed by cluster corporates＇ long-term interaction is beneficial to cluster financing. Without this kind of synergy, cluster financing may bring the cumulative risk of default and the occurrence of infectious risk. In this article, we construct an assessment indicator system evaluating industry cluster correlation including three indicators： lateral association, vertical association and network association. This system also considers external factors. Based on the data of corporate finance behavior in Suzhou fiber industry cluster, we use SEM to verify the cluster correlation＇s internal logic and its＇ influence on cluster company＇s credit availability. We find that cluster＇s lateral association, vertical association and network association interact with external factors and positively influence cluster firms＇ credit availability. Furthermore, from the perspective of commercial bank＇s credit decision on cluster, we provide Banker＇s Promotion Tournament Model to explain the internal mechanism of cluster＇s contagion of risk. According to the model, when dealing with SMEs financing difficulty, we simultaneously need to consider contagion of risk involved in cluster financing. The advantage of cluster financing depends upon not only promoting the correlation of industry cluster effectively, but also optimizing of commercial bank＇s governance and decision model. The effectiveness of cluster financing also depends on the collaboration of industry cluster＇s planners and managers, industry firms, commercial banks and governments.