提高火电行业排放标准对中国经济和污染物排放的影响——基于环境CGE模型的测算

Economic and Environmental Implications of Raising China's Emission Standard for Thermal Power Plants:An Environmentally Extended CGE Model-Based Analysis

通过利用环境CGE模型测算实施《火电厂大气污染物排放标准GB 13223—2011》对中国宏观经济和污染物减排的短期影响。模拟结果显示,短期内,新标准对宏观经济的影响较小,GDP只下降了0.18%。从行业产出看,要素价格下降,使工业部门和出口导向型行业成本降低,产出扩张。此外,新标准对大气污染物减排的效果显著。由于脱硫脱硝装置的投入使用使末端废气去除率提高,进而导致煤炭燃烧排放量大幅下降,SO_2和NO_x的排放量分别下降22.8%和11.4%,绝对量分别减少560万t和148万t。

An environmental CGE model is developed to analyze the impacts of emission standard of air pollutants for thermal power plants GB 13223—2011 on China＇s macro economy and air pollutants emission reductions.The simulation results show that the new standard has little effect on the macro economy with the GDP losing by 0.18%.From the industry output,due to the fall of factor prices,the industrial sector and the export-oriented industry＇s cost reduce,which result in output expansion.In addition,the reduction effect of atmospheric pollutant emission is remarkable.Due to the increase of removal rate for exhaust gas and coal combustion emissions decrease significantly,SO_2 and NO_X emissions are decreased by 22.8% and 11.4%,with the absolute volume decreased by 5.60 Mt and 1.48 Mt,respectively.