“全面二孩”政策下儿科医生需求与缺口测算

The pediatrician demands and gaps under the universal two-child policy

“全面二孩”政策实施后，我国出生人口数量增加，儿科医生短缺形势更加严峻。本文基于出生人口的变化情况，采用卫生服务需求法对儿科医生需求与缺口进行测算。结果显示，除北京、上海外，2016—2020年我国各地区儿科医生供需比均小于0．80，整体需再新增191981～198287名儿科医生才能满足服务需求。建议兼顾全国供需比与缺口情况，通过合理扩招、提高待遇等方式增加儿科医生，同时加强信息公开和宣传引导，完善分级诊疗机制，缓解大城市压力。

With the universal two-child policy implementation, the birth rate increased, posing challenges to pediatrician allocation. Based on the birth rate, we calculated pediatrician demands and gaps during the period from 2016 to 2020 by the method of health service demand. The results showed that except Beijing and Shanghai, the ped- iatrician supply and demand ratios are less than 0.80 and additional numbers of pediatricians ranging from 191 981 to 198 287 are needed to meet the service demands. We recommend increasing the number of pediatricians taking both national supply-demand ratios and gaps by rationally using reasonable enrolment quota and improving the treatment and other reasonable ways to increase pediatricians. In addition, we should enhance information disclosure and guidance, and improve the hierarchical hospital visit system to alleviate the pressure of big cities.