清乾隆至宣统年间的经济周期——以开封、太原粮价数据为中心

The Economic Cycles from Qianlong to Xuantong in Qing Dynasty:A Spectrum Analysis Based on Rice Prices in Kaifeng and Taiyuan

本文利用清代粮价清单中开封府、太原府的小麦价格数据,用谱分析的方法,得出了乾隆至宣统年间的经济周期。从乾隆元年至宣统三年,中国存在3个为期60年的长周期。在每一个长周期内,又可以分为若干个中周期。每次巨额军费支出都刺激了粮价上涨,水旱灾害、生态环境的变迁、极端的气候变化和白银供给量的变化也深深影响着经济周期。随着与世界经济联系的日益紧密,中国的经济周期受世界经济景气的影响程度也日益加深。

Using wheat prices of the prefecture of Kaifeng and Taiyuan,and with the method of spectrum analysis,this paper managed to work out the economic cycle from Qianlong to Xuantong in Qing dynasty.We find that from 1736 to 1911China has 3long economic cycles,each of which lasted for 60 years.Each long cycle can be divided into several middlelength cycles.Major military spending stimulated the rising rice prices.We also find that extreme climate change and silver supply affected the change of the economic cycle.