经济转型过程中资源依赖度演进路径分解模型研究

Evolution Roadmap Decomposition Model for Resource Dependency During the Process of Economy Transformation

资源依赖度的变化是资源型经济转型的重要标志。为了识别转型过程中的驱动因素和滞后因素,并对可持续发展效果进行评价,本文提出了资源依赖度演进路径分解模型。该模型在考虑一个经济体的各个组成部分的基础上,以资源依赖度的导数形式为起点,通过设计对数均值算法解决定积分计算中存在的问题,最终得到资源依赖度演进路径完全分解方程。该模型可以将一个经济体在一段时期内资源依赖度的变化,分解为每一个组成部分在每一年通过每一项影响因素所做出的贡献的和。此外,本文还使用该模型对山西省2006-2012年资源依赖度的变化量进行了分解分析,为促进山西省资源型经济的转型发展提出了相应的政策建议。

Economic transformation is essential for many resource-based areas.To identify the driving force and resistance factors of the transformation and to evaluate the effects of sustainable development,an evolution roadmap decomposition model for resource dependency is proposed in this paper.Based on the consideration of the geographical components of an economy,the differential to the resource dependency is used to indicate the beginning of the decomposition model.After designing the mean algorithm to solve the problems existed in calculating the definite integral,the complete resource dependency decomposition equation is obtained.By using this model,the change of the resource dependency for an economy can be decomposed to the summation of the contribution of each component through each influence factor in each year.Furthermore,the change of the resource dependency for Shanxi province during 2006-2012 is decomposed by the proposed model and the following conclusions are drawn.1）The decrease of resource dependency of Shanxi province depended mainly on the＂natural＂transformation and the changes of the relative development speed of different areas have hindered the transformation;as well as 2）The sustainable development rank from the fast to the slow of all the considered areas is Shuozhou,Yangquan,Jincheng,Xinzhou,Changzhi,Jinzhong,Datong,Taiyuan,Linfen,and Lvliang.