城市PM_(2.5)健康损害评估研究

Evaluation of PM_(2.5)'s adverse human health effect in cities

参考美国Ben MAP软件,提出城市PM_(2.5)健康损害评估的基本框架,并就评估方法和参数使用中的关键问题进行了论述,包括人群健康损害评估指标的确定、空间尺度和时间尺度的选择、健康终点的界定、人群年龄结构的划分、比较的基准的确定,以及"剂量-反应"关系参数和生命价值参数的选择等.本文收集和整理了2014年北京市空气质量监测点PM_(2.5)浓度监测数据及暴露人口、基期死亡率等数据,运用"向标准靠拢(Rollback to Standard)"的方法,估算北京市PM_(2.5)达到空气质量标准情景下的浓度值,以此作为比较的基准,使用美国Ben MAP数据库收录的"剂量-反应"关系参数,分别基于"工资-风险"法模型和人力资本法模型估计生命价值参数,代入本文城市PM_(2.5)健康损害评估的基本框架,计算2014年北京市PM_(2.5)对人群健康的损害.

By referring to US EPA＇s Ben MAP software,this article proposes a basic framework for evaluating PM（2.5）＇s adverse effecton human＇s health in cities. This article also analyzes some key issues in choosing evaluation method and parameters,including the determination of evaluation indicator,spatial and time scale,health endpoint,receptors＇ age structure,baseline for comparison,and the selection of＂dose-response＂relationship and life of value parameters. In this article,we collect PM（2.5）concentration data from monitoring sites in Beijing in 2014. By using the ＂Rollback to Standard＂method,we predict the PM（2.5）concentration under the city＇s air quality attainment scenario,which is then used as a baseline to calculate PM（2.5）＇s adverse effecton human＇s health in Beijing. The＂does-response＂parameter we use is from the USEPA＇s Ben MAP database,and we estimate the value of statistical life based on＂wage-risk＂method and human capital method.