中国净出口商品结构及其影响因素研究

The Net Export Structure and Its Influencing Factors in China

我国净出口商品3要素投入模型和概率模型的回归结果显示,资本密集度越高的商品净出口比率越小;非熟练劳动和熟练劳动密集度越高的商品净出口比率越大;资本-劳动比率越高净进口的概率也越高。其经济含义是:中国出口非熟练劳动和熟练劳动密集型商品,进口资本密集型商品。由于熟练劳动密集型商品的技术密集度也较高,所以该结论与基于技术复杂度指数的"超越论"观点一致。但是,中国出口非熟练劳动密集型商品、进口资本密集型商品的结论又符合要素禀赋理论,所以"非超越论"的观点也有道理。

The regression results of 3 factors model and probit model showed： the more the capital intensity of a commodity,the smaller ratio of the net export; the more the unskilled labor intensity or skilled labor intensity,the higher ratio of the net export; the higher capital- labor ratio,the higher probability of net import.. Its economic meaning is： China export unskilled and skilled intensity commodity,import capital intensity commodity. As skilled labor- intensity goods are also technology intensity goods,so the conclusion supports the view of the ＂transcendentalism＂. But the＂untranscendentalism＂view is also reasonable,because China export unskilled labor intensity commodity and import capital intensity commodity.