商誉减值与分析师盈余预测——基于盈余管理的视角

Goodwill Impairments and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts——From the Perspective of Earnings Management

以2007至2013年的沪深两市A股上市公司为样本,研究了上市公司计提商誉减值损失行为对分析师盈余预测的影响。研究发现,上市公司计提商誉减值损失的行为降低了分析师盈余预测的准确度,提高了分析师盈余预测的分歧度。进一步的研究显示,商誉减值对分析师盈余预测的不利影响仅存在于出现负向盈余管理行为的公司中,即其源自基于盈余管理动机的商誉减值行为。此外,高质量的外部审计可以显著降低商誉减值对分析师盈余预测的不利影响。

Based on the data of listed A-share Chinese companies from 2007 to 2013, this paper examines the association between goodwill impairments and analysts＇ earnings forecasts. The empirical results indicate that the likelihood and magnitude of goodwill impairments are negatively associated with forecast accuracy and positively associated with forecast dispersion. Furthermore, our research reveals that the effect is concentrated in firms with negative earnings management hehaviours, i.e. the firms with opportunistic motivation of managers＇ goodwill impairment decisions. Moreover, the study shows that high-quality audit reduces the adverse effect of goodwill impairments on analysts＇ earnings forecast.