河北省马铃薯替代小麦生产的可能性分析

Feasibility Analysis on Substituting Potato for Wheat in Hebei Province

水资源紧缺和人口增长带来的粮食安全问题是我国农业发展面临的严峻挑战,谷物生产耗水量大,而马铃薯具节水特性,使得以马铃薯替代传统谷物生产的呼声越来越高。为了研究马铃薯替代谷物生产的可能性,以粮食生产大省——河北省为例,对其近5年来的小麦和马铃薯生产的用水量进行比较,并测算了以马铃薯替代小麦之后的用水量变化。结果表明:保持当前降雨水平和麦薯总用地量不变的情况下,将这些耕地全部种植马铃薯的总需水量为6.83亿吨,比当前麦薯同种的总需水量减少了94.63%;而全部种植小麦的总需水量达136.13亿吨,比当前麦薯同种的总需水量增加了6.96%。换句话说,以马铃薯替代小麦生产之后,总需水量可减少95%。

China is now facing the challenges of food security in agricultural development caused by water shortage and populationgrowth.In recent years,more and more people are calling for planting the potato instead of traditional cereals due to high water consumption of cereals and water saving feature of the potato.In order to study the feasibility of substituting the potato for cereals in China,this paper makes a case study in Hebei province to compare water consumption of wheat and potato production from 2008 to 2012and then predicts the changes of water consumption after substituting the potato for cereals.The result shows that if all arable land currently planted with wheat and potato in Hebei province was used to plant potato only,the total water consumption would be 0.68 billion tons which is 94.63% less than thecurrent water conumption.At the same time,if all the arable land was used to plant wheat,total water consumption would be 13.61 billion tons,6.96% higher than the current water consumption.In other words,the total water consumption could be reduced by 95% by substituting potato for wheat in Hebei province.