高速铁路影响下铁路客流量预测研究

Study on Forecast of Railway Passenger Flow Volume under Influence of High-speed Railways

高速铁路开通后,运输能力、安全性、经济性、舒适性、方便性等方面对既有客流分布产生了一定影响。根据客流构成,将客流量分为趋势客流量、转移客流量和诱增客流量?3?部分,分析各类客流量影响因素及变化趋势的差异,分别选用?BP?人工神经网络、灰色模型、重力模型建立高速铁路影响下的铁路客流量预测模型。通过算例验证,铁路客流量预测结果可以为高速铁路运输需求分析和建设提供数据支撑。

After starting to operate of some aspects like transport capacity, safety, economy, comfort and convenience of high-speed railway have influences on existing passenger flow distribution. According to the composition of passenger flow, passenger flow volume was divided into 3 parts, which are trend passenger flow volume, transfer passenger flow volume and induced passenger flow volume, the influence factors of each passenger flow volume and the differences of change trend were analyzed, and the forecast model of railway passenger flow volume under influence of high-speed railways was established by selecting BP artificial neural network, grey model and gravity model respectively. Example shows the forecast result of railway passenger flow volume could provide data support for transport demand analysis and construction of high-speed railways.