中国城市化与经济增长关系研究——基于向量自回归模型

Research on the Relationship Between the Urbanization and Economic Growth in China——Based on the VAR Model

选取了1978年-2012年的中国城市化率和人均GDP指标,通过建立VAR模型、Johanson协整检验以及格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解函数等分析方法对我国城市化和经济增长之间的相互作用机制进行了分析,得出以下一致结论:中国城市化和经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,具体表现为城市化指标每增加1%,经济增长指标增加7.35%;城市化在5%的显著性水平下构成了经济增长的格兰杰原因,而经济增长对于城市化虽有一定程度的影响,但是不能构成其主要原因.

In order to clarify that there is a mutual-influence relationship between the urbanization and economic growth in China,this paper analyzed the indexes of China＇s urbanization rate and GDP per capita from 1978 to 2012 using the methods of VAR model,Johanson cointegration test,granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition function. The conclusion is consistent：there is a long- term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and urbanization in China,which shows that urbanization index increasing 1% generates the increase in economic growth by 7.35%. Urbanization constitutes the granger cause of economic growth under the significance level of 5%and economic growth has a certain degree of influence on the urbanization,but cannot be the main reason.