产业发展与城市土地利用关系研究——利用有约束条件的似乎不相关回归模型分析

Applying Seemingly Unrelated Regression with Constraints to Estimate the Relationship between Economic Sectors and Urban Land Uses

城市经济发展需要建筑空间作支撑,不同的经济活动有不同的建筑空间要求,而不同土地利用类型有不同的建筑容积率,因此为城市经济发展供给城市土地就比较复杂。产业与城市土地之间数量关系是实现经济规划与城市规划融合、经济规划"空间落地"的一个重要技术关键。本文利用有约束的似乎不相关模型分析经济产业与城市土地之间的关系,通过北京实证估算,该方法推算的结果比较符合实际。我们认为该方法可以广泛地应用到其它城市,在直接数据缺失的情况下,这个非调查方法的实用价值不可低估。

The relationship between economic sectors and urban land uses is critical to estimate land demand based on market development. This paper develops a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model with Constraints to estimate the relationship. Empirical analysis using Beijing Data reveals that estimated coefficients are consistent with expectation in terms of significant levels and magnitude in size. It is concluded that this non-survey method can be applied to many other Chinese cities to overcome non-availability of survey data to establish the relationship.