产业生成视角旅游业对城市化发展的影响——以张家界为例

On the Effect of Tourism upon Urban Development from the Perspective of Tourism Generation: A case of study of Zhangjiajie

运用时间序列模型等计量方法,对张家界旅游产业生成周期进行定量划分,构建城市化和旅游业评价体系,结合熵值法对两大体系进行综合测量,分阶段探讨张家界旅游业对城市化发展的影响,研究结果显示:(1)总体上,张家界旅游业对城市化发展具有较强带动效应,即在1%的显著水平下,旅游就业、收入和市场效益每提高1个单位,其城市化水平将提升5.1759、1.0868和0.8459个单位;(2)出现期,是旅游业带动城市发展的自然介入期,其中旅游收入、就业效益对城市化有显著作用,市场效益不利于城市发展;(3)生成期,旅游带动城市化发展的快速成长期,其中旅游就业、市场效益对城市化作用显著,收入效益不显著;(4)发展期,城市化发展的加速阶段,旅游收入、市场效益对城市化作用显著,就业效益不显著。

Time series model is adopted to divide quantitatively generative period of the tourism in Zhangjiajie, aiming to create assessment system for urbanization and tourism which can be evaluated by means of entropy method, and then the effect of tourism upon urban development is explored in different stages. The findings show： Firstly, on the whole, the tourism in Zhangjiajie produces a certain effect on urban development, namely, under the salient level of 1%, whenever tourism employment, income, and market efficiency increase 1unit, urbanization level will arise 5.1759, 1.0868 and 0.8459 units; secondly, emerging stage is the natural intervention period in which tourism income, employment efficiency play a salient role in city, but market efficiency is not good for urban development; thirdly, generative period is the period in which tourism makes urbanization develops rapidly, tourism employment and market efficiency play a salient role in urbanization, and income efficiency does not so; fourthly, developing period is an accelerative stage in which tourism income and market efficiency play a salient role in urbanization, but tourism employment does not so.