城乡养老保险协调度、制约因素及对策——基于1999—2013年数据的实证分析

The Coordination Degree of Urban and Rural Pension System,Its Constraints and Implements: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Data from 1999 to 2013

在二元经济结构条件下,城乡养老保险体系协调发展需要经过一个从低级向高级转换的过程。为衡量城乡养老保险体系协调发展程度,笔者构建了由覆盖率、缴费率和替代率等指标构成的绝对协调度和相对协调度模型,测定了全国及31个省份城乡养老保险协调度并进行了实证分析。结果发现:1999—2013年全国城乡养老保险绝对协调度逐年上升,从失调逐步走向基本协调;相对协调度总体较低,表明一些指标发展不均衡。东中西部地区城乡养老保险协调度也呈现相似的规律,但地区间存在一定差异。为促进城乡养老保险体系协调发展,笔者提出加快扩大城镇覆盖面并提高参保率、建立城乡养老保险平衡费率机制、适度提高农村居民养老金替代率并逐步缩小城乡差距等政策建议。

In the context of dual economic structure,the coordinated development of urban and rural pension insurance system needs a process from the lower level to higher level. In order to measure the coordinated development level of urban and rural pension system,the absolute coordination degree and relative coordination degree model which is composed of the coverage rate,contribution rate and replacement rate of pension are established. Two kinds of coordination degree of the whole country and 31 municipalities are calculated and empirically analyzed. The results show that the absolute coordination degree of urban and rural system is gradually increasing,and gradually goes from discordance to coordination in the 1999-2013. The relative degree of coordination is very lower,indicating that some indexes are still not balanced. The coordination degree of urban and rural pension system in the eastern,middle and western regions also has a similar changing process,but there are some differences among these regions. For promoting the coordinated development of urban and rural pension system,we present some policy suggestions which accelerate the expansion of coverage and increase the rate of joining insurance,establish the balance mechanism of contribution rate of urban and rural pension,moderately increase the pension replacement rate of rural residents and reduce the gap between the benefit of urban and rural pension.