产业结构调整、人口结构转变与潜在经济增长率

Industrial structure adjustment,population structure change and potential economic increase rate

本文从产业结构调整和人口结构变动两方面考虑了实际GDP的变化情况,研究了导致中国近几年来的实际经济增速下降的原因,并通过建立的模型对未来五年做出趋势预测。首先建立了资本形成率与人口抚养比、城市化率以及第二产业比重的回归关系,分析了产业结构调整、人口结构转变因素的对资本形成率的联动影响。其次从标准生产函数核算框架出发,附加人力资本变量,考虑经济结构变动因素对潜在经济增速的影响,进行潜在增长情景模拟。

We first consider the changes of real GDP from two aspects of industrial structure adjustment and popula-tion structure change,and then uncover the reasons for the decline of the real economic growth of China in recentyears,and finally make a trend prediction for the next five years. In this paper,we establish a regression equationof capital formation rate,population urbanization rate,the proportion of secondary industry,and dependency ratioof population. We also analyze the influence of industrial structure adjustment on economy growth rate and stimu-late the growth scenario based on the standard production functions and human resource variables.