世界经济增长乏力 外部环境更趋复杂——世界经济2015年回顾及2016年展望

Weak world economic growth and growingly complex external environment——World economy review 2015 and outlook in 2016

2015年,世界经济运行中的新旧矛盾相互叠加和共振,复苏疲弱乏力,增长速度放缓。从经济体看,美国经济继续温和复苏,但整体复苏势头趋缓;欧元区经济动力不足,日本经济依然艰难,新兴经济体增幅持续回落、分化加大。世界经济运行呈现四个主要特点:一是世界经济继续低速运行;二是世界贸易增长进一步放缓;三是全球消费价格涨幅回落;四是国际金融市场大幅动荡。本文对2016年世界经济运行进行了初步判断,认为世界经济仍将处于国际金融危机后的修复期,政策措施的有效性下降,新的增长动能没有确立,仍会维持"低利率、低通胀、低增长、高负债"的"三低一高"态势,复苏将依然疲弱乏力。不利因素包括:各国政府宏观调控政策效果有限、美国加息带来的不确定性、新兴市场经济体的经济增长可能进一步放缓、国际市场大宗商品价格低位震荡及地缘政治紧张等。最后,本文分析了外部环境将对中国经济产生的影响,并提出了积极扩大内需,推进"供给侧改革",加速产业结构转型升级,并提前做好金融市场动荡的应对预案等政策建议。

In 2015,the old and new contradictions in the world economy sup erp osed and resonated,the recovery was anaemic,and the growth rate slowed down.Look at different economies,the U.S.economy continued recovering moderately,but the overall recovery was weak.The euro zone was lack of economic momentum.Jap an's economy was still difficult.The growth of emerg ing economies dropped with increasing differentiation.In 2015,the world economy presented four main characteristics:The first is the low growth of world economy;the second is the further slow-down of world trade growth;the third is the dropof global consumer pricesg rowth;the fourth is the drastic volatility in the international financial markets.The paper makes apreliminary judgment on the world economy in 2016,arguin g that the world economy will remain at the recovering stage after the financial crisis,the effectiveness of policies and measures declines,new growth momentum will not be established,the situation of'low interest rates,low inflation,lowg rowth,high debt'or namely'three lows and one high'remains,the recovery will stay anaemic.Unfavorable factors include the following:the limited effectiveness of governments' macromanag ement policy,the uncertainty resulted from the U.S.interest rate hike,the further slowdown of emerg ing market economies,the volatility of international commodity prices and geopolitical tension.Finally,this paper analyzes the potential influence of the external environment on China's economy,and puts forward policy recommendations to actively expand domestic and foreign demands,promote supply-side reforms,accelerate the transformation and upgrade of domestic industrial structure,and prepare emergency plans to deal with turmoil in the financial markets.