人口红利、劳动力跨行业配置与经济可持续增长

Demographic Dividend,Cross-industry Configuration of Labors and Sustainable Economic Growth

人口红利逐渐消失、产业结构失衡导致经济增长出现"结构性减速",劳动力要素迫切需要调整以推动经济增长。从产业结构转型角度研究劳动力在行业间的配置问题以及对经济增长的作用机制,利用人口红利模型测算表明,目前中国人口红利呈逐步减弱趋势。基于1990-2013年中国省际面板数据的实证结果表明,第三产业对经济增长有正向效应;1990-2000年,人口红利对经济增长促进作用显著;2001-2013年,由于劳动力数量、技术进步、产业结构等因素变化,人口红利对经济增长作用不明显,技术密集型第二产业显著促进经济增长。由此说明,通过制度改革、市场配置等手段促进劳动力跨行业流动,引导劳动力流向技术密集型第二产业和第三产业,有利于提高劳动力利用效率,推进产业结构转型,从而实现经济可持续增长。

With the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend and structural imbalance,China＇s economic growth has been in a ＂structural slowdown ＂. It ＇s urgent to adjust labor elements to the economic growth. From the perspective of industrial structural transformation,this paper researches on the issues about cross-industry configuration of labor force and the mechanism of economic growth. Using demographic dividend model,the calculation shows that China＇s demographic dividend is in a gradually weakening trend. By the use of China＇s provincial panel data of 1990 to 2013,the results show that the tertiary industry has a positive effect on economic growth. From 1990 to 2000,demographic dividend has a positive effect on economic growth. Due to the changes in the number of labor,technological progress,industrial structure and other factors,technology intensive second industry has made contributions to economic growth instead of demographic dividend from 2001 to 2013. Thus,government should promote cross- industries labor circulation with methods like system reformation and market disposition,which can lead labors into technology intensive secondary industry and tertiary industry to enhance labor＇s utilization efficiency and push forward industrial structural transformation. Above all,all these policies can realize sustainable growth in economy.