基于联立方程的中国蔬菜价格形成研究

Research on the Formation of Chinese Vegetable Prices based on the Simultaneous Equations

近年来我国蔬菜市场价格起伏较大,蔬菜作为居民生活必需品和农村的重要产业,其价格走势成为各界关注的焦点。基于1990-2013年我国蔬菜供给、需求和价格的时间序列数据,运用联立方程实证分析蔬菜零售价格形成及其影响因素。研究结果表明:蔬菜零售价格的形成对前一期的蔬菜产量和蔬菜生产价格、农业就业比例以及总人口数等因素变化的反应是富于弹性的,这些因素的大幅震动容易引起蔬菜零售价格的剧烈波动;蔬菜零售价格在反映供给变化上具有放大效应,不能因为蔬菜零售价格涨跌幅较大便认为蔬菜供给严重短缺或产能过剩。蔬菜零售价格形成受来自供给和需求方面多种因素的影响,其如何波动取决于产生外部冲击的具体因素以及这些因素的变化幅度。

In recent years,the price fluctuation of vegetable market in our country is volatile. As animportantindustry,vegetable price trend come into focus. Based on the time series data of vegetable supply,demand and pricefrom 1990 to 2013,this paper uses a simultaneous equation to analyze the formation and the influencing factors of vegetable retail price. The results show that： the previous period of vegetable production and vegetable production price,the proportion of agricultural employment and the total populationarespringiness. These factors can easily lead to sharp fluctuations in vegetable retail prices. The greatfluctuationof vegetable retail pricepresents little relationship to serious shortage or excess capacity of vegetable supply. Vegetable retail price is influenced by many factors from supply and demand,and the fluctuations depend on the specific factors and the change range of these factors.