跨境资金流动对我国经济金融影响的压力测试

The Ttress Testing on the Impact of Cross-border Capital Flows to China's Economy and Finance

随着我国经济开放度的提高,跨境资金流动对经济金融的影响受到了更多关注。本文在现有研究的基础上,分析了跨境资金流动对我国经济金融的影响机制,构建了基于Wilson风险模型的经济系统,运用广义矩(GMM)方法拟合了系统参数,并进行了情景分析。研究结果表明,在现行宏观经济管理体制下,跨境资金流出对我国金融和经济具有一定的负面影响。

With a higher level of economic openness, people pay more attention to the impact of Cross-border capitalflows to China＇s economy and finance.This paper analyzes the mechanism of cross-border capital flows＇ influence on China＇seconomy and finance, and builds an economic system based on Wilson risk model, using the generalized moment（GMM）method fitting the system parameters, and a scenario analysis is carried out. The research results clearly show that underthe current system of macro economic management, cross-border capital flows have a negative impact to China＇s economyand finance.