科学客观看待中国经济增速与货币政策调控——2015年货币政策回顾与2016年展望

Evaluating China’s economic growth and monetary control policy scientifically and objectively——Review of Monetary Policy 2015 and Prospect in 2016

2015年货币政策偏于宽松,突出表现为超预期的货币供应量和信贷量。偏于宽松的货币政策为＂稳增长＂创造合理的流动性环境和低利率环境。但是超预期的信贷对经济刺激效果下降;信贷资金流向加剧产业结构矛盾;部分信贷资金违规流入股市助涨助跌;部分信贷资金参与套利套汇的＂财务游戏＂;频繁的降准降息向外界传递错误信号,加大资本外流压力。展望2016年,在稳定人民币汇率预期、调结构等多重因素影响下,货币政策从＂松紧适度＂转为强调＂灵活适度＂,灵活运用调整基准利率传递央行货币政策信号,灵活降准以对冲基础货币缺口,灵活运用结构性金融工具补充流动性。

The monetary policies were loose in 2015 for both the amount of money supply and credit than expected. Loose monetary policy surely creates a reasonable liquidity and low interest rates environment for ＂stabilizing growth＂strategy. But the marginal economical effect of credit stimulus declined, and credit flows deteriorated industrial structure. Part of the credit funds enhanced the stock price Volatility, and part of the credit funds participated in the financial game of arbitrage. China＇s central bank cut interest rates（IR） and reduced the legal reserve rates（LRR） frequently had delivered false signals that china＇s economy was deteriorated so that more money to escape.In 2016, subject to the multiple factors such as stabilizing RMB exchange rates and adjusting economical structures, the monetary police should turn from ＂elastic moderate＂to emphasize＂flexible moderate＂, adjusting the benchmark IR to transmit the central bank monetary policy signals, and use IRR to hedge the gap of the base currency, and use more structured monetary measures to maintain liquidity.