我国人口年龄结构变化对住房消费的影响研究——兼论我国实施“全面二孩”政策的效果评估

The Influences of the Change in Age Structure on Housing Consumption in China——The Policy Impact Evaluation of the Universal Two-child Policy

我国人口老年化和少子化趋势日益严重,抑制了住房消费的有效增长和房地产市场的持续发展。＂全面二孩＂政策的实施,是否能改变人口年龄结构的变化趋势,又将如何影响住房消费。为了回答这一问题,本文根据绝对收入消费理论、生命周期消费理论、收入代际转移的利他主义理论,分别提出研究假设,推导出家庭住房消费函数,并得到两个理论假说,即老年抚养比影响住房消费的拐点论、少儿抚养比影响住房消费的瓶颈论。其次,本文利用2004-2014年全国31个省区的面板数据,确定我国老年抚养比的拐点为20.53%,目前尚未达到;收入瓶颈为15674.21元,就全国平均水平而言,突破收入瓶颈的时间为2011年。然后,本文分别对＂双独二孩＂、＂单独二孩＂和＂全面二孩＂政策下2016-2050年的我国人口进行预测,从而确定我国老年抚养比影响住房消费的拐点将出现在2023年,并得到国家实施＂全面二孩＂的政策效应。最后,本文从改变住房消费对老年抚养比和少儿抚养比的偏效应入手,提出增加住房消费的两条具体路径。

Ageing population and low-birth rate trends in China could exert influence on the housing consumption as well as the development of housing market. In order to answer the question whether the Universal Two-child Policy could change the age structure and further make an impact on the housing consumption, this paper makes the combination of absolute income consumption theory, life cycle consumption theory and altruism theory, puts forward the research hypothesis and derives the domestic housing consumption function with two viewpoints：one is the inflection point on ODR（Old-age Dependency Ratio） affecting housing consumption, another is the bottleneck on CDR（children＇s dependency ratio） affecting housing consumption.Moreover, Based on the empirical analysis using panel data of 31 provinces in China during 2004-2014, this paper concludes the ODR ＂inflection point＂ is 20.53% which China has not yet reached; the income ＂bottleneck＂ is 15674.21 RMB which China has already reached in 2011.The paper then predicts the population of 2016-2050 under the Universal Two-child Policy, makes the conclusion that China will reach the ODR ＂inflection point＂ at 2023, and further examines the impactof the Universal Two-child Policy on the housing consumption.In the end, the paper puts forward two detailed methods on increasing the housing consumption by changing the partial effect of the housing consumption＇s ODR and CDR.