灰色系统GM(1,1)模型在我国艾滋病发病率预测研究中的应用

Application of the grey system GM(1,1) for the prediction of HIV/AIDS incidences in China

目的预测我国艾滋病发病趋势,为科学制定我国艾滋病防治策略提供依据。方法利用我国2005—2014年艾滋病发病率数据,应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,建立我国艾滋病的发病率预测模型。结果我国2015—2019年艾滋病的发病率预测结果分别为4.83/10万、6.14/10万、7.80/10万、9.90/10万、12.58/10万。结论经灰色系统GM(1,1)预测,我国未来五年艾滋病的发病率将持续上升,应该加强防控措施,控制其发病率。

Objective To predict the HIV/AIDS incidence trend of China,so as to provide evidences for making control strategies scientifically.Methods According to HIV/AIDS incidence rates of China from 2005 to 2014,the predictive model of HIV/AIDS was established by the grey system theory.Results The predictive results of HIV/AIDS incidences in China from 2015 to 2019 were 4.83/105,6.14/105,7.80/105,9.90/105,12.58/105,respectively.Conclusion Through the grey system GM（1,1） for the prediction,the HIV/AIDS incidence will continue to rise in the next five years in China. So the control measures should be strengthened to control the disease.