农地流转对家庭化流动的影响——来自流出地的证据

The Influence of Land Renting on Familization of Migration:Evidence from the Origin Places

家庭化既是当前人口流动的典型特征,也是未来人口流动的大势所趋。本文将农地流转引入家庭化流动决策的分析框架之中,提出有关家庭化流动的两类概念研究范式,并利用2011—2012年原国家人口计生委三类地区人口流动及其影响因素监测调查数据,围绕农地流转与流动人口家庭化两大热点问题,从流出地的视角展开分析。研究发现包括:在不同的概念研究范式和回归模型方法下,家庭化流动受到农地流转显著积极影响的结论都能得以验证;农地流转在家庭化流动影响因素模型中存在内生性,以村级农地流转度作为工具变量控制内生性后,农地流转对家庭化流动的促进作用仍然可被证实。本文不仅更加系统地界定了家庭化流动的范畴,而且更为深入地探讨了农地流转对其产生的影响,具有农地流转的超经济意义、城镇落户的流出地驱动、家庭发展的多政策整合、就业促进的新常态模式等方面的政策启示。

The objective of this paper is to illustrate and examine the influence of land renting on familization of migration in the perspective of origin places. Based on two paradigms about the concepts of familization of migration summarized from the familization of migration literature,an empirical study using the Population Migration and Related Factors Surveillance Survey data from Three Types of Areas(i.e. ecologically fragile areas,border areas and minority areas)by the National Population and Family Planning Commission of China in 2011 and 2012 is conducted. Under different research paradigms,also with different regression models,the conclusion that land renting promotes familization of migration can be proved. However,there exists the endogeneity problem in the regression models above. Using the levels of land renting in the villages as an instrumental variable to control the endogeneity problem,the significant influence of land renting on familization of migration can still be proved. The key limitation of this paper is that the instrumental variable,the levels of land renting in the villages,can't be measured more precisely because of the questionnaire design in the survey. Another difficulty is to explore the influential mechanisms between land renting and familization of migration. On the basis of research findings,this paper offers some policy implications from the perspectives of the super economic significance of land renting,the driving force from the origin place to achieve citizenization,the integration of policies to promote the development of families and the new normal mode of employment promotion.Different from the previous research on familization of migration,this paper defines and measures familization of migration more systematically. Besides,the influence of land renting on familization of migration is researched more deeply using different regression models to estimate and instrumental variable regression models for robustness tests.