中韩FTA对中国农业的影响分析

Impact of the China-South Korea FTA on China's Agriculture

中韩两国农产品贸易发展迅速,目前中国已成为韩国第一大贸易伙伴和第一大进口来源国,随着中韩自由贸易协议的签订,双方的经贸往来将更加频繁。在中韩FTA签订之际,对中韩双方可能降税的农产品进行一般均衡模拟,能够对FTA对中国农产品生产、消费、价格及贸易情况的影响进行预判并为相关部门进行风险预警,有利于市场风险的规避。从中韩自贸区的谈判历程入手,对中韩农产品贸易情况进行分析,判断双方可能降税的农产品品种及降税幅度,并对可能降税的品种带来的效应进行量化,最后根据定量分析结果对相关产业发展提出合理建议。

The bilateral agricultural products trade between China and South Korea has developed rapidly,at present,China has become the largest trading partner and biggest source of South Korea’s import.Along with China-South Korea FTA signed,China-South Korea’s economic ties will be more frequent.On the occasion of China-South Korea FTA signed,this paper used General Equilibrium Model to analyze agricultural products which both China and South Korea may drop taxes,so as to be able to make pre-judgment on the impact of FTA on the production,consumption,price and trade of China’s agricultural products and risk early warning to the relevant departments,in brief,it was conducive to avoid market risk.Starting with negotiation process of China-South Korea FTA,the authors analyzed China-South Korea’s agricultural products trade situation in order to determine agricultural commodities which might be dropped taxes and their size of being dropped taxes and quantify the effect of agricultural commodities of possible tax reduction,at last,put forward the reasonable suggestions for related industry development according to quantitative analysis results.